Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk (pdf)

Description

Extreme Risk Management brings causation into the equation. The use of causal models in risk management, securities valuation, and portfolio management provides a real and much-needed alternative to the stochastic models used so far. Providing an alternative tool for risk modeling and scenario-building in stress-testing, this game-changing book uses causal models that help you:

• • Evaluate risk with extraordinary accuracy

• • Predict devastating worst-case scenarios

• • Enhance transparency

• • Facilitate better decision making

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• • Plausibility vs. Probability: Alternative World Views

• • The Evolution of Modern Analytics

• • Risk Management Metrics and Models

• • The Future as Forecast: Assumptions Implicit in Stochastic Risk Measurement Models

• • An Alternative Path to Actionable Intelligence

• • Solutions: Moving Toward a Connectivist Approach

• • An Introduction to Causality: Theory, Models, and Inference

• • Risk Inference Networks: Estimating Vulnerability, Consequences, and Likelihood

• • Securities Valuation, Risk Measurement, and Portfolio Management Using Causal Models

• • Risk Fusion and Super Models: A Framework for Enterprise Risk Management

• • Inferring Causality from Historical Market Behavior

• • Sensemaking for Warnings: Reverse-Engineering Market Intelligence

• The United States as Enterprise: Implications for National Policy and Security